MLB Regression Report

Thursday, June 25, 2026

9 games · 9 with market lines

51Mild Watch
Model Edge
PHI @ WSH·6:45 PM ET·Nationals Park
PHI
Philadelphia Phillies
46%54%
WSH
Washington Nationals
-168
+118
C. Sánchez
+139
-118
C. Cavalli

The home team may be underpriced at +139. The model estimates a fair price closer to -118, a 21-cent gap. Key signals: Model Edge.

37Pass
Model Edge
ATH @ SF·3:45 PM ET·Oracle Park
ATH
Athletics
38%62%
SF
San Francisco Giants
+109
+164
J. Springs
-132
-164
L. Roupp

The home team may be underpriced at -132. The model estimates a fair price closer to -164, a 32-cent gap. Key signals: Model Edge.

36Pass
Hidden Pitcher Value
CHC @ NYM·7:10 PM ET·Citi Field
CHC
Chicago Cubs
50%50%
NYM
New York Mets
-110
-102
M. Boyd
-109
+102
F. Peralta

The market (-109) and model (+102) are roughly aligned — a 7-cent gap is within normal variance. Key signals: Hidden Pitcher Value.

32Pass
Pitcher MirageHidden Pitcher Value
HOU @ DET·6:40 PM ET·Comerica Park
HOU
Houston Astros
48%52%
DET
Detroit Tigers
-105
+106
T. Imai
-114
-106
T. Melton

The market (-114) and model (-106) are roughly aligned — a 8-cent gap is within normal variance. Key signals: Pitcher Mirage, Hidden Pitcher Value.

30Pass
Pitcher Mirage
SEA @ PIT·12:35 PM ET·PNC ParkLive
SEA
Seattle Mariners
51%49%
PIT
Pittsburgh Pirates
-144
-106
B. Miller
+119
+106
B. Chandler

A 13-cent gap between model and market. Key signals: Pitcher Mirage.

30Pass
Model Edge
TEX @ TOR·7:07 PM ET·Rogers Centre
TEX
Texas Rangers
44%56%
TOR
Toronto Blue Jays
+129
+128
M. Gore
-156
-128
K. Gausman

The away team may be underpriced at +129. The model estimates a fair price closer to +128, a 28-cent gap. Key signals: Model Edge.

28Pass
Model Edge
KC @ TB·12:10 PM ET·Tropicana FieldLive
KC
Kansas City Royals
46%54%
TB
Tampa Bay Rays
+123
+118
S. Lugo
-149
-118
C. Legumina

The away team may be underpriced at +123. The model estimates a fair price closer to +118, a 31-cent gap. Key signals: Model Edge.

26Pass
Pitcher MirageHidden Pitcher Value
AZ @ STL·7:45 PM ET·Busch Stadium
AZ
Arizona Diamondbacks
45%55%
STL
St. Louis Cardinals
+113
+124
Z. Gallen
-136
-124
M. McGreevy

A 12-cent gap between model and market. Key signals: Pitcher Mirage, Hidden Pitcher Value.

20Pass
NYY @ BOS·7:10 PM ET·Fenway Park
NYY
New York Yankees
56%44%
BOS
Boston Red Sox
-141
-126
C. Schlittler
+117
+126
C. Early

The market (+117) and model (+126) are roughly aligned — a 9-cent gap is within normal variance.